Space agencies have intensified their monitoring in response to growing concern about the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4. The latest assessment conducted by NASA specialists has produced a new map of potentially vulnerable areas, should an impact on Earth occur within seven years.
Although the risk remains low, scientific authorities have noted a recent increase in the probability of collision, which has prompted a more detailed review of the object's path.
We’ll have to stay alert, but in 2032 | Europa Press, en.catalunyadiari.com
Dan Rankin points out these countries
Among those most involved in these analyses is David Rankin. He is an engineer with the Catalina Sky Survey project, who has outlined a specific geographic strip that could be under threat.
According to updated studies, this "risk corridor" traces an imaginary line. It begins in the upper part of South America, crosses the Pacific Ocean, and extends through regions of southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and areas of Africa.
The impact point would depend on the planet's exact position at the critical moment. The countries within this strip include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Nigeria.
The asteroid in question has an estimated diameter between 131 ft. and 328 ft. (40 and 100 meters). At that scale, if it were to hit land, it could create a crater the size of a city. The speed at which it would travel—about 37,900 mph (61,000 kilometers per hour)—would make it a threat capable of releasing energy equivalent to more than 100 nuclear bombs.
The most feared scenario places the possible impact date on Wednesday, December 22, 2032, at 8:52 GMT (9:52, Spanish peninsular time). That is, just before the Christmas celebration. The estimates come from both NASA and the European Space Agency, which continue to cross-check orbital data to refine the prediction.
Although the possibility of collision is 1.5%, the fact that this number has increased by 2.4% in the latest calculations has triggered some alarms. However, experts insist that there is no reason to fall into alarmism. Rankin has reminded that "the data are constantly re-evaluated and modified as they monitor the highly changing trajectory of the space rock."
NASA is tracking this asteroid | NASA, en.catalunyadiari.com, Getty Images de Neil Johnson
NASA has made an online tool available to the public that allows real-time tracking of the asteroid's trajectory. There, users can consult projections, orbital parameters, and other variables related to the object.
The truth is that, despite the commotion, these types of phenomena are not rare in modern astronomy. Most bodies that approach Earth usually disintegrate upon entering the atmosphere or simply pass by. However, due to its size and speed, 2024 YR4 has attracted special attention.
The scientific community will continue to closely observe every change in its path, hoping that the risk figures will decrease in the coming years. For now, everything indicates that there are more reasons to keep up monitoring than to fear an imminent disaster.
